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Korean Situation
after IMF Bail-out |
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Korean Situation after IMF Bail-out
(15 October 1998)
Won-bo, Lee
Director of Korea Labour & Society Institute
1. Relative Stability of Foreign Currency and Finance Market
Increase of foreign currency holdings.
Maintaining the black of current account because of the decrease of import and long-term
loan, and increase of foreigners' direct investment.
Stable exchange rate
Decreasing interest rate
Stable consumer price
[Table1] Main Index of
Korean Economy in 1998
(In terms of
improvement)
ITEM |
STANDARD |
CHANGE |
Foreign Exchange Holding (Bn.US$)
|
8.87(late 1997) |
40.17(Aug. 1998) |
The Black of Current Account (Bn.US$) |
3.59(late 1997) |
36.7(Jul. 1998) |
Exchange Rate(Won against US$) |
1,706.8(Jan.1998) |
1,300.8(Jul. 1998) |
Call rate(%) |
25.34(Jan. 1998) |
12.19(Jul. 1997) |
Dishonored bill rate in Seoul(%) |
2.25(Dec. 1997) |
0.44(Jul. 1998) |
Increase rate of Consumption price (%) |
9.5(Feb. 1998) |
7.3(Jul. 1998) |
2. Inactivity of Real Economy
Minus of economic growth rate(first experience since 1980, -2.8%)
Rapid decline of production growth rate
The lowest rate of manufacturing operation
Extremely tied up plant & equipment investment
Inactive domestic consumption and deterioration of managerial index caused by wage cut
and massive layoff
Rapid decline of export since August
Rapid increase of unemployment rate
[Table2] Main Index of Korean
Economy in 1998(in terms of instability)
ITEM |
STANDARD |
CHANGE |
Economic growth rate(%) |
3.9 (4/4 quarter 1997) |
-5.3
(1/4?2/4 quarter 1998) |
Production growth rate
(% compared to earlier year) |
3.0 (Dec. 1997) |
-12.9 (Jul. 1998) |
Manufacturing operation rate(%) |
76.1(Dec. 1997) |
63.7(Jul. 1998) |
Plant & equipment investment rate
(% compared to earlier year) |
-20.6(Dec. 1997) |
-48.9(Jul. 1998) |
Increase rate of export
(% compared to earlier year) |
3.3(1st half 1997) |
-11.5(Jun. 1998) |
Unemployment rate(%) |
3.1 (Dec. 1997) |
7.6(Jul. 1998) |
No. of unemployed(1000s) |
658(Dec. 1997) |
1,651(Jul. 1997) |
3. Labor Market
1) Deterioration of Employment Situation
Decrease of economically active population
Decline of economic activity rate
5.4% of the employed decreased compared to one year ago
Unemployment rate: 7.6%(July 1998)- the highest rate since July 1982.
[Table 3] Recent Employment Index
|
1997 |
1998 |
2/4 quarter |
1/4 quarter |
2/4 quarter |
January |
June |
Population 15 years old and over |
34,688(1.6) |
35,070(1.6) |
35,187(1.5) |
35,031 |
35,267(0.7) |
Economically active population(1000s) |
21,868(2.5) |
20,892(-1.0) |
21,663(-0.9) |
20,645 |
21,650(4.9) |
Activity rate(%) |
63.1 |
59.6 |
61.6 |
58.9 |
61.4 |
Employed(1000s) |
21,319(1.8) |
19710(-3.7) |
20,178(-5.4) |
19711 |
19,999(1.5) |
Unemployed(1000s) |
550 |
1,182 |
1,485 |
934 |
1,651(76.8) |
Unemployment rate(%) |
2.5 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
4.5 |
7.6(3.1) |
- 3.9% decrease of women economic active population compared to earlier year(total number
of reduction: 348,000, 10s?20s : 73.9%, 50s : 31.2%)
Rapid increase of unemployment of daily
workers from 231,000 to 422,000 because of the inactivity of construction, wholesale and
retail industry.
Increase of proportion of the non-voluntary
unemployed from 34.5% to 40.5% because of the lack of jobs and deterioration of managerial
situation.
- Rapid increase of proportion of householders unemployed from 35.7% to 46.7% in 2/4
quarter of 1998 compared to earlier year.
2) Structural Change of Labor Market
8.2% of wage workers decreased in 2/4 quarter of 1998 compared to earlier year and
full-timer reached 3/4 of reduced employee.
Reduced number of employees reached 856,000 of which manufacturing sector occupied 55.1%
and other sectors did 40.1%
13.8% of Employee (from 15 to 29years old) decreased compared to earlier year.
4. Government Policy of Restructuring
1) Rapid Propulsion of Flexible Labor Market
Korea has the most flexible labor market in the OECD countries because of the rapid
growth of irregular workers, employers' unilateral layoff, expansion of worker dispatch
system.
The government passed the labor law including the article of introduction of massive
layoff and workers dispatch system in February 1998 'for the purpose of overcoming
economic crisis'.
2) Rapid Market Opening
In May 1998, government opened 1,135 industries among all 1,148 industries to foreign
investor and market opening rate reached 98.8%
3) Restructuring in Finance Industry Sector
In June 1998, government withdrew 5 banks among 25, and propelled M&A between banks
and sale for foreign investor.
Government withdrew 4 insurance companies among 50, 17 merchant banks among 30, 5 lease
company among 25, 12 credit unions among 1,653.
Government unilaterally ordered banks to reduce 40% of employees for productivity
increase.
Although the restructuring in finance sector focused on massive redundancy and wage cut,
the government unilaterally propelled its restructuring policy without consultation or
agreement with trade unions and is therefore faced with strong resistance of unions.
4) Restructuring in Public Sector
In public sector, Korean government has 108 investing and financing enterprises, 58
financing research agencies, 49 finance supporting agencies, 490 central and local
government owned-agencies.
The government has strongly propelled to privatize public enterprises and sell them to
foreign investors in the name of efficiency and competitiveness.
The main contents of privatization policy consist of sale of public enterprises and
government owned-stocks, M&A between agencies that have similar functions, and
reduction of employees and budgets.
The government policy of restructuring on public sector ignored the public interest and
focused on profitability and efficiency. This policy deepens monopolization of Chaebols
and strengthens the domination of foreign capital in Korean economy and is facing with the
strong resistance from labor because the government excluded labor in the process of
restructuring.
5) Restructuring in Private Sector
The government demanded Korean conglomerates, Chaebols to reform their economic
governance system which resulted in the current economic crisis, to secure the managerial
transparency, and to rationalize their affiliates, which is called 'Big Deal' for
competitiveness
Chaebols are strongly resisting the government restructuring policy and are
trying to change it in quality in order to maintain their economic power.
Some chaebols increased their affiliates. For example, in car industry Samsung
and Hyundai and Daewoo are contending in taking over Kia motors.
6) Unemployment Policy
According to the KCTU, number of the real unemployed including the discouraged
unemployed, family workers and daily construction workers reached 3,650,000 and, if
workers who work less than 17 hours weekly is added, 5,000,000.
The unemployed is rapidly increasing in manufacturing and construction sector.
Rapid increase of the unemployed resulted from restructuring, inactive recruitment
caused by economic recession and deterioration of enterprise management, and restructuring
in public sector. This will result in serious social problem because of the absence of
social safety net.
Only 4% of all the workers can receive unemployment benefits secured by unemployment
insurance law. After October the government set up a plan to include all the workers in
unemployment insurance net but will suffer from financial lack.
Government budget for unemployment policy was assigned 7,600 billion won (1US$=1300 won)
in 1998 and 8,600 billion won in 1999. But government didn't suggest the long-term and
fundamental unemployment policy.
5. Response of Trade Union Movement
1) Labor Policy of Government and Capitalists
Government policy to attract trade unions through tripartite commission.
Employers' demand of wage cut, wage freeze and redundancy.
Employers' unilateral break of collective bargaining and unfair labor practice.
Strong suppression of government against workers' resistance: number of workers under
restraint is more than that of former government.
2) Living Conditions of Workers
Both of nominal wage and real wage decreased due to wage cut or wage freeze and price
increase.
12 % decrease of real wage in first half of 1998 compared to earlier year.
Most of labor welfare condition was destroyed.
3) Situation of Trade Unions
- Trade union system based on enterprise-level
- Nonexistence of political party pro working class
- Continuous decline of union density
- Division of trade union movement
- Federation of Korean Trade Unions(FKTU)-
membership: 1million
- Korean Confederation of Trade Unions(KCTU)-membership: 550,000
[Table 4] Trend of Union Density
Year |
No. of trade union |
No. of member(1000s) |
union density (%) |
1986 |
2,675 |
1,036, |
12.3 |
1989 |
7,883 |
1,932 |
18.6 |
1995 |
6,606 |
1,615 |
12.7 |
1996 |
6,424 |
1,599 |
12.2 |
1997 |
5,733 |
1,484 |
11.1 |
4) Response of Trade Union
Movement
- Rejection of layoff, security of employment and socio-economic transformation were
adopted as basic goals in 1998.
- Institutional participation in making policy and decision such as tripartite agreement.
- Struggle against massive layoff, unfair labor practice, deteriorating working condition
(KCTU organized two general strikes which mobilized 230,000 workers).
- Strong resistance against layoff (ex : Hyundai Motors, Mando Machinery).
- Efforts to overcome enterprise-level union system through entrusting bargaining right to
industrial federation .
- Unification of labor movement and building industrial union system.
- Construction of progressive party (until May 1999).
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